Immediate and Long-Term Prospects and Challenges for Lead

Over 80% of global refined lead consumption is tied to battery production, making rising competition from lithium-ion technology a key challenge for the lead industry. Government incentives and stricter CO₂ standards have accelerated the adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles (HEVs and EVs), where lithium-ion batteries are standard for propulsion. However, most of these vehicles still rely on 12V lead-acid batteries for auxiliary functions, while conventional vehicles and many hybrids continue to use lead-based SLI systems.
EVs and some hybrids generally utilise smaller 12V batteries that contain less lead, reducing lead intensity per vehicle. However, this trend is being partly offset by the growing use of advanced 12V lead-acid batteries, such as AGM and EFB types, which contain significantly more lead than conventional units. Additionally, the increasing complexity of onboard electronics continues to reinforce the need for robust and reliable 12V systems. According to ILZSG analysis, overall lead demand from the vehicle sector is not expected to decline significantly in the short to medium term.

Another key source of lead battery demand is the e-bike sector, particularly in China, India, and Southeast Asia. This segment continues to expand, driven by new sales and frequent battery replacements. While lithium-ion batteries are gaining traction, lead-acid batteries remain widely used due to their lower cost and greater safety, as well as supportive policies such as China’s trade-in programs.
This presentation will outline some of the main challenges and future prospects for the lead industry, with a focus on battery demand from key sectors.

Presenters

Joao Jorge

Director of Market Research and Statistics, International Lead and Zinc Study Group

Joao holds a Master’s Degree in Economics, from the ISCTE Business School, Lisbon, a Postgraduate Diploma in Applied Econometrics and Forecasting and a Bachelor’s Degree in Economics, both from ISEG School of Economics and Management of Lisbon University.

After having worked for the Portuguese National Statistics Institute, in 2006 Joao joined the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, firstly as a Statistical Analyst, then as Manager of Statistical Analysis and, since 2018, holding the position of Director of Market Research and Statistics. He is directly involved in the production of ILZSG’s Monthly Lead and Zinc Statistical Bulletin and the Group’s twice yearly Market Forecasts.

The ILZSG is an intergovernmental organisation formed by the United Nations in 1959 to promote transparency in the lead and zinc markets via the provision continuous information on the supply and demand and its probable development, facilitate co-operation between governments and industry and conduct in-depth research into other issues of interest to members via the completion of special reports and studies. It currently has 27 member countries.